So, I have my doubts about how viable this toll road is (8.8 mi, $2.75 one-way) given that it connects together two Interstate highways, and not much else. But they may have an actual, real solution. The Airport Connector.
The original agreement with Transurban requires them to build a 1.6 mile connector to the south end of the Richmond airport. This $50M connector will save travelers up to 10 minutes of travel time!
I guess they've done a sophisticated analysis of airport user patterns to determine how all of this will work. From their advertising though, travelers going east onto I-295 will pay $1.25, and the travelers going west will pay the full $2.75.
How much does this make for them? Well, that's where you need that sophisticated analysis.
Right now RIC gets about 3.5M passengers per year. Unfortunately, the April 2009 statistics show travel was down 2.6% from the year before. Well, it's the economy again.
Yeah, and in April 2008 the travel was down 4.0% from 2007. And in April 2007 it was up 4.0% from 2006. So, I guess about the best we can say is that their passenger traffic is flat.
Even so, if half the passengers use the connector (1.75M/yr), and 50% each go east and west, then the roundtrip cost of $4.00 (average) comes out to an increase in tolls of $7M per year. Not bad! An increase of over 50% from what they're collecting now.
Except...did you notice the problem? The assumption that 50% of travelers arrive via the connector? Via the Parkway?
Why would anyone coming from east of the airport arrive that way? They wouldn't.
Why would anyone coming from the north in Henrico or Hanover come that way? They wouldn't.
Why would anyone coming from the West End come that way? They wouldn't.
Why would anyone coming from Richmond come that way? Maybe a few would, but most wouldn't.
That leaves the south end, Chesterfield, Petersburg, and the surrounding areas. Convenient for them, so they'll use it. But is it enough to pay another $50M in loans plus operating and maintenance expenses?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment