Nobel Prizes

OK. the Nobel Peace Prize thing was funny, but I hadn't realized that President Obama also has two Grammy Awards.

Also, if we want to make friends with the world, couldn't the USA lighten up a little? The Nobel committee has named the awards in the six categories, with a total of 13 recipients. Of those 13, 9 are Americans, and only 4 went to the rest of the world. Quit being such hogs.

VDOT and Transurban - Part 2

So, I have my doubts about how viable this toll road is (8.8 mi, $2.75 one-way) given that it connects together two Interstate highways, and not much else. But they may have an actual, real solution. The Airport Connector.

The original agreement with Transurban requires them to build a 1.6 mile connector to the south end of the Richmond airport. This $50M connector will save travelers up to 10 minutes of travel time!

I guess they've done a sophisticated analysis of airport user patterns to determine how all of this will work. From their advertising though, travelers going east onto I-295 will pay $1.25, and the travelers going west will pay the full $2.75.

How much does this make for them? Well, that's where you need that sophisticated analysis.

Right now RIC gets about 3.5M passengers per year. Unfortunately, the April 2009 statistics show travel was down 2.6% from the year before. Well, it's the economy again.

Yeah, and in April 2008 the travel was down 4.0% from 2007. And in April 2007 it was up 4.0% from 2006. So, I guess about the best we can say is that their passenger traffic is flat.

Even so, if half the passengers use the connector (1.75M/yr), and 50% each go east and west, then the roundtrip cost of $4.00 (average) comes out to an increase in tolls of $7M per year. Not bad! An increase of over 50% from what they're collecting now.

Except...did you notice the problem? The assumption that 50% of travelers arrive via the connector? Via the Parkway?

Why would anyone coming from east of the airport arrive that way? They wouldn't.

Why would anyone coming from the north in Henrico or Hanover come that way? They wouldn't.

Why would anyone coming from the West End come that way? They wouldn't.

Why would anyone coming from Richmond come that way? Maybe a few would, but most wouldn't.

That leaves the south end, Chesterfield, Petersburg, and the surrounding areas. Convenient for them, so they'll use it. But is it enough to pay another $50M in loans plus operating and maintenance expenses?

VDOT and Transurban - Part 1

In May 2006 the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) and a consortium including the Australian corporation Transurban signed an agreement under which Transurban will operate the Pocahontas Parkway (State Route 895) as a toll road. This route connects Interstate 95 to Interstate 295 just south of Richmond.

In the agreement, Transurban agreed to pay the Commonwealth an estimated $552 million plus a percentage of the toll revenues above Transurban's operating and maintenance expenses. Transurban agrees to operate the toll road for 99 years, and will be required to build a 1.6 mile connector road to Richmond International Airport.

So, how's that working out? Click on the the picture.

Traffic in the last year is down 14.6%. Revenue, despite an increase in the toll, is down 2.8% to a total of about $13M per year.

Their annual report notes that traffic grew during the first half of the year, and then dropped in part due to the toll increase, and of course the mandatory "economic conditions".

I think they should elaborate a bit on these economic conditions that are affecting them.

Are they talking about high gas prices affecting overall driven mileage? If so, that hardly explains the drop in traffic compared to the same time last year. The first quarter of 2009 had gas prices that were about $1 per gallon lower than a year ago.

A decrease in commercial traffic? Well, maybe. It certainly can't all be a decrease in just non-commercial travel. People still need to get home every night.

Right now the real problem is that this road doesn't go anywhere. It connects together two roads that intersect both north and south of this location. They are also connected by several other free roads. So why use the toll road?

In any case, revenue of only $13M per year is going to be a problem in trying to pay off a $552M debt while paying for operations and maintenance as well. Do you suppose that their financing is as cheap as 2%? If so, their interest payments alone are $11M per year.

Overall, it doesn't appear from their corporate financial statements that toll roads are doing that well. Through the end of FY2008 they lost $140M. Still, that was better than the preceding year when they lost $152M.

So how long, at this rate, until they come back and want to revise the terms of the deal?

Man, Obama is up early!

At 8:33 am EDT I see this article, posted by AP at 6:22 am EDT:

US President Barack Obama on Saturday urged Congress to pass comprehensive health care reform by the end of the year, arguing it was necessary for the country to maintain its competitive edge.

That man must get up and start making speeches really early!

Uh, oh! Here they come again.

I made it past the first round of budget cuts, but they're back!

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine said yesterday that the ongoing recession will force even deeper cuts in state spending in the coming months.

Kaine said he has instructed the heads of all state agencies to reduce spending further, because revenues for April, May and June are expected to fall below estimates upon which the budget for fiscal 2009 was based.

That means the state could fall up to $225 million short of the revenue it needs to balance Virginia's budget through the fiscal year that ends June 30.

Newspapers are Worthless

I've been pawing through every on-line version of a newspaper in this state and can't find any statement by a Representative or Senator regarding any damn thing that is happening in this country. I will admit, our local pols seem pretty useless, but I imagine they are making some public statements on occasion. So, why is nothing in the paper?

I'm Confused

At the Egypt-Gaza border -

Hamas negotiators left Egypt without a long-term cease-fire with Israel on Thursday — but not before some members of the militant group's delegation were stopped at the Gaza border carrying millions in cash.

The delegation walked away from the cease-fire talks because of disagreements over the blockage on Gaza and border security. Talks will continue at a later date.

An Egyptian security official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the group initially refused to be searched by Egyptian authorities at the Rafah border crossing. When the group relented, authorities found $7 million and 2 million euros ($2.5 million) in cash in their suitcases. Another security official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said $9 million and 2 million euros were found. The discrepancy could not be immediately explained.

OK, I can understand a terrorist group would have lots of uses for cash, but why would they be smuggling it into Gaza? Is there something special there they have previously been unable to buy? Or steal at gunpoint?

"Just Like Us"?

Most of what Caroline Kennedy seems to get is fluff, but seriously -

Amid all the recent buzz about Caroline Kennedy's bid for a U.S. Senate seat, there has been a great deal of talk about her connections, her power, her wealth. But the way I see it, if you strip away the glamour, the name and the money, then Caroline is . . . me. And many of my friends. Maybe even you. If, that is, you happen to be a midlife woman raising kids and returning -- or thinking of returning, or hoping one day to return -- to the full-time workforce.

She seems like you and your friends? And you are...?

Anne Glusker is a freelance journalist living in France and the host of "Stir it Up," a weekly food program on Swiss radio.

Hat tip: Powerline

Car Companies

The magnitude of hysteria over the "Big 3" car companies going broke is so silly.

Detroit's car makers employ nearly a quarter-million workers, and more than 730,000 other workers produce materials and parts that go into cars. If just one of the automakers declared bankruptcy, some estimates put U.S. job losses next year as high as 2.5 million.

So, your point is that if GM goes under Americans will stop buying cars? Anything else doesn't make sense. "Import" companies make their cars in the U.S. now. It's too expensive to ship many of them from overseas.

Looks like Toyota has plants in 12 states, as does Honda. What will happen to their workers if the government decides to subsidize the others?

I got 94%

There is a test about civic literacy posted at the Intercollegiate Studies Institute. Apparently, a lot of elected officials have problems with basic concepts (44% correct answers). On a positive note, the population as a whole gets slightly higher scores (49%).

I got 94%. Darn Lincoln-Douglas Debates!

US elected officials scored abysmally on a test measuring their civic knowledge, with an average grade of just 44 percent, the group that organized the exam said Thursday.

Ordinary citizens did not fare much better, scoring just 49 percent correct on the 33 exam questions compiled by the Intercollegiate Studies Institute (ISI).

"It is disturbing enough that the general public failed ISI's civic literacy test, but when you consider the even more dismal scores of elected officials, you have to be concerned," said Josiah Bunting, chairman of the National Civic Literacy Board at ISI.

Those who can, do. Those who can't, govern.

We are not Worthy! We are not Worthy!

This Might Explain Some Things

The British commander in Afghanistan doesn't think the war there can be won.

"We're not going to win this war. It's about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that's not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army."

He went on: "If the Taliban were prepared to sit on the other side of the table and talk about a political settlement, then that's precisely the sort of progress that concludes insurgencies like this. That shouldn't make people uncomfortable."

Well, he may be right, or he may be wrong. But attitudes like that certainly go a long way to explaining why, 232 years later, there are US troops permanently based in the UK, and not the other way around. That "negotiating with the insurgency" thing didn't turn out that well for them.

Obama? Magua?

Is it just me, or does The One remind you of actor Wes Studi as Magua?

When the Grey Hair is dead, Magua will eat his heart. Before he dies, Magua will put his children under the knife, so the Grey Hair will know his seed is wiped out forever.

Our Governor is an F'ing Fool

Obama - Change You Can Believe In

Ah, another endorsement

Barack Obama is not a left candidate. This fact has seemingly surprised a number of progressive people who are bemoaning Obama’s “shift to the center.” (Right-wingers are happy to join them, suggesting Obama is a “flip-flopper.”) It’s sad that some who seek progressive change are missing the forest for the trees. But they will not dampen the wide and deep enthusiasm for blocking a third Bush term represented by John McCain, or for bringing Obama by a landslide into the White House with a large Democratic congressional majority.

A broad multiclass, multiracial movement is converging around Obama’s “Hope, change and unity” campaign because they see in it the thrilling opportunity to end 30 years of ultra-right rule and move our nation forward with a broadly progressive agenda.

You might want to click through on that link and see who's endorsing him.

I'll Give Him One Thing...

...and he'll give her another.

One positive point to John Edwards admission of having an affair. At least he appears to know which end of the girl it goes in.

Did They Think This Through?

Olympic Trivia: The 2008 Olympics in Beijing were designed by Albert Speer.

Just by coincidence, or maybe not, Albert's father, also an Albert Speer, designed the 1936 Olympics for Adolph Hitler. The elder Speer server as Hitler's Minister of Armaments, and later spent 20 years in Spandau prison after his conviction at the Nuremburg war crimes trials.

It's almost enough to make me wished I had watched the opening ceremonies.

Almost.

Recall Update

They're doing pretty well with the petitions I wrote about earlier.

An estimated 2,000 to 3,000 signatures have been gathered by a grass-roots group of volunteers seeking to remove from office four members of the Gloucester County Board of Supervisors.

In the third full day of collecting signatures across Gloucester, residents were lining up at tables from Gloucester Point to Gloucester Court House to sign petitions seeking to oust supervisors Teresa Altemus, Bobby Crewe, Michelle Ressler and Gregory Woodard.

To put that in perspective, Gloucester County has a population of under 39,000 of whom about 30,000 are of voting age. In the election that brought these critters to power, there were only about 1,700 votes cast in my precinct (Crewe won by 218 votes). In the one Supervisor race that was at-large there were under 9200 votes cast (Ressler won by 1,642 votes).

My understanding is that in order for a recall to be authorized, they have to get signatures equaling 10% of the votes cast in the last election. So, 170 or so for Crewe, and 920 for Ressler. Sounds like they'll have that to spare. Which is good, as the judges will throw out the signatures on any technicality.

But, looks like we'll be voting again soon.

Recall

After the great time we've had with our supervisors here, the recall process has begun.

Just after noon Friday, Garr Johnson walked into Burke's of Gloucester on Main Street with copies of 250 petitions that seek to remove four members of the county Board of Supervisors from office.

Within an hour, the petitions hit shops and sidewalks in Gloucester, and residents were already lining up to sign them.

Winnie and I signed this morning. They were set up at a card table in the parking lot of the post office, and they were keeping a line about 5 deep in the few minutes I was there. Shouldn't take too long.

Ah, small town life!

It's so fun to live in a small community, where everyone gets in everyone else's business.

Four members of the Gloucester County Board of Supervisors and the Gloucester sheriff were indicted on a total of 15 misdemeanor charges by a special grand jury Tuesday.

In addition, a Gloucester developer faces 10 felony charges in connection with the forgery of county documents.

Supervisors Teresa Altemus, Michelle Ressler, Robert "Bobby" Crewe and Gregory Woodard each were indicted on charges of transacting public business in private, unlawful warrantless search and computer trespass. Crewe and Ressler also faces charges of coercing and intimidating a county employee as a result of a closed-door meeting on Jan. 8 with former Planning Director Jay Scudder.

Sheriff Steve Gentry faces a single misdemeanor count of malfeasance or misuse of office for conducting unlawful searches and seizures related to the entry of the offices of former county employees Bill Whitley and Danny Stuck.

Developer George Woodhouse, who was Crewe's largest campaign contributor and who also contributed $500 to Gentry's campaign, is accused of forging county certificates of occupancy, which are documents that certify that a structure complies with county ordinances regulating building.

We've all been waiting for this ever since these four decided they were going to personally remake all of Gloucester's government.