The price of (heating) oil - 2007 edition

Last year I was worried about the pre-buy contract I was being offered for heating oil by my supplier. I can get it at a fixed price if I pay in advance on whatever amount I want to buy.

This year the price was $2.599 per gallon. I bought 750 gallons, the same as last year, figuring the price had to go up to $3 a gallon later on.

Today I bought gas at $2.589, the lowest price I've seen in many months. I'm starting to wonder "did I guess right, or do I lose this year?"

This year, amazingly enough, the price is the same. They say I used 766 gallons last year, so I'm tempted to bet low and go with 750 gallons for the third year in a row ($1950). (There's no thought in my mind saying "what if the prices drop?")

However, you get a 5 cent discount if you order 800 gallons or more. If I went for that, I'd pay $2040. $90 more for an additional 50 gallons. Hmmm, I'd use it up eventually.

What happens if you don't pre-buy? Well, you can still sign up for their "even payment program", where they estimate the price, and your usage, for you and send you monthly bills where they try to smooth it out. You pay the current market price, but with a cap of $2.85. That could add hundreds to my bill. I think not.