It'll be a HOT day in hell...

At the urging of our glorious General Assembly, VDOT has contracted to turn the I-495 beltway around D.C. into HOT (High Occupancy - Toll) lanes. The idea is that car pools travel for free (like HOV lanes), but cars containing only 1 or 2 people can travel in them by paying a toll, thus saving a little time.

How much of a toll? How much time? From the Washington Post -

Using an average rush-hour toll of $1.54 a mile, as projected in the studies, a 6.3- mile morning commute between Route 29 and Braddock Road in Fairfax County would cost $9.70 and save 90 seconds over the Beltway's "free lanes." That translates to $6.47 for each minute saved -- an hourly rate of $388, which would make some K Street lawyers jealous.

Yikes! Ten bucks each way? Well, I can't afford it, but I guess there are those that can. But to save 90 seconds? Come on, you've got to have messed up the numbers.

Project officials say HOT lanes traffic will move at a minimum of 55 mph. That is why there is no cap on toll rates -- to discourage drivers who might clog up the lanes and slow speeds.

That predictability could eliminate what transportation planners call "buffer time," the extra time travelers build into their commute to cover traffic mishaps. Eliminating buffer time could mean an extra hour with family, a second cup of coffee with the morning paper, an extra hour of sleep. There also is the security of knowing that traffic will not cause one to miss that job interview or breakfast with the boss.

"Buffer time". Hmmm, call me self centered, but if I left for work an hour early, and traffic was light, and I got there, well, an hour early, I might be tempted to possibly leave an hour early. Net loss to my family - zero.

This is more like a way to screw yourself even worse. Imagine that instead of a bona fide K Street lawyer, you are a guy that uses the lanes, but feels the pinch.

The way they keep traffic flowing at a minimum of 55mph is by raising the toll. As the speed drops they raise the toll in real time. OK, you can afford $1 per mile. You OK with $1.50? How about $2? $4? Remember, it's now 20 minutes until the day care closes, and they charge you an extra $15 for every 15 minutes you're late. What do you do?

By the way, about that minimum 55mph?

Daley says the toll lanes will maintain an average speed of 55 mph, but the internal reports estimate average rush-hour speeds of 43 mph to 44 mph.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it was that slow. See, the Beltway doesn't have HOV lanes now. ("Huh?" is what I said when I moved into the area.) Car pools are mixed in with everyone else, but a lot of people do pool. How many? We'll find out. But remember, car pools use the HOT lanes for free. The toll payers are just using the spare capacity. Also,

Off-peak tolls could be as little as 14 cents a mile.

Yeah, you stick with that story. I've driven the Beltway late at night, or on good-weather weekends. It's 4 to 6 lanes of 75mph from the Potomac to nearly Springfield. No one is going to pay even 14 cents unless you make that 75mph the legal speed limit.